Pakistan-China Economic Corridor: Expectations and Realities

Historically, Russians, landlocked Central Asians Countries and Chinese were looking for access to Pakistan’s ports. Whereas United States had been trying to block their access for strategic reasons by provoking instability in the region. However, the changing global economic climate, slow US and European economy, aging western population and the newly formed Chinese-Russian nexus defeated the US Foreign Policy for South and Central Asia. The strategic location of Pakistan is essential for developing new world economy.

Pakistan China Economic Corridor (PCEC) offers shortest possible trade route for exporting and importing goods to and from China and Central Asia to Middle East and Africa. The volume of transit transaction amounts to trillions of dollars of annual revenue which will not only help to improve regional economy but also living stands of Pakistanis and citizens of Central Asian countries by significant increase in  GDP per Capita Income.

Now with the help of Chinese-Russian Nexus and the opportunities opened up with the establishment of economic corridor, the per capita income is expected to cross US$ 20,000 resulting in social-justice and prosperity.

Despite of the fact that Pakistan paid heavy price for involving in regional conflicts, supporting US interests and Indian insurgencies, we did not loose hope and faith. China has wisely stepped in the right direction, at the right time by extending strategic cooperation with Pakistan not only to boost its economic growth but to develop the new world economy defeating US-Indian nexus as well.

As a result, Pakistan will face new challenges related to political instability, insurgencies in Baluchistan, sectarian violence but this time Pakistan is well prepared and equipped to respond with strong and trustworthy coalition partners.

Because of the Chinese’s financial commitment to meeting Pakistan's infrastructure and energy needs, as well as that country's peculiar geopolitical position in South Asia, President Xi Jinping's visit to Islamabad is being read by outsiders as a power play.

But that is a thorough misunderstanding of the China -Pakistani relationship. For outsiders, the obvious disparity between the two immediate neighbors, in size, national strength and plenty of other aspects sets the stage for an unequal relationship. The China-Pakistan partnership has become what it is precisely because it is free of power play. It is a real-world template of the state-to-state relations Chinese foreign policy pursues. It is built on mutual respect and benefits.

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor cannot fail because it serves some of the two countries' most pressing needs. And Pakistan wants it as much as China does. The corridor will offer China an additional route for energy imports. Extensive infrastructure projects will greatly ease Pakistan's transport and logistics bottlenecks, which the World Bank said cost 4 to 6 percent of its annual GDP. Energy projects on the drawing board are expected to double the country's power supplies. They are essential for rebooting Pakistan's underperforming economy, and turning it into a regional economic hub. More important, the corridor is a significant opening move on the "Belt and Road Initiative" chessboard.

Many variables may create troubles for the joint development endeavors, security concerns in particular. But the long-term rapport is a precious asset for both countries.

In a groundbreaking agreement last November, the Chinese government committed to invest over $45 billion in China-Pak Economic Corridor (CPEC). This corridor will connect Gwadar with Chinese city of Kashgar in the Xinjiang autonomous region, through highways, rail link and oil-gas pipelines. This project was dubbed as a “game changer” by Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif for the region. Recently, CPEC has been in news for its proposed change in route. This proposal has made this entire project controversial from the outset.

The new proposed route bypasses a major portion of Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK). This change has triggered opposition from politicians of both western provinces. Presently there are three possible routes for this corridor; eastern-route, western-route and a third alternative route.

The government has decided to go on with the eastern-route. This will connect Gwadar with Kashgar via Gadani-Khuzdar-Ratodero-Sukkur-Multan-Lahore-Islamabad-Havelian and then Karakoram Highway which extends to Kashgar. Federal Minister of Planning and Development Ahsan Iqbal claims that the eastern route has been chosen at the behest of the Chinese government.

The western-route for CPEC stretches from Gwadar to Kashgar via Awaran-Ratodero-Naseerabad-Dera Bugti-DG Khan-DI Khan-Swat and it joins Karakoram Highway at Gilgit. This route is not much different from the eastern-route in bypassing majority of the areas in Balochistan.

The third alternative route connects Gwadar to Kashgar via Turbat-Panjgur-Kalat-Quetta-Zhob-DI Khan-Swat and Gilgit. Politicians from Balochistan and KPK are demanding that CPEC should be built on this third alternative route. The government, however, claims that the original route for the corridor was the western-route. As a result, confusion still surrounds the original route of this corridor.

There are two factors that need to be considered while choosing the route. The first factor is feasibility. Based on this factor, no doubt, eastern-route is most feasible. Existing road and railway infrastructure, in Sindh and Punjab, will be used in case of eastern-Route. Terrain is rigid and extremely difficult for construction on both western and third route. So, eastern route will be completed in shorter period with less costs and hurdles.

Second factor to be considered is the political factor. This proposed corridor is not called game-changer without any reason. It would bring massive development over the course of time in all the areas it touches, and beyond. Choosing the eastern-route would deprive Balochistan and KPK of the economic benefits of CPEC. Punjab and Sindh are relatively developed as compared to Balochistan and KPK. Choosing the eastern-route will further broaden the economic disparity in favour of Sindh and Punjab. This will consequently aggravate inter-provincial discord. It would further reiterate the assertion that Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif only protects the interests of his constituency i.e. north Punjab. Therefore, the eastern-route should be avoided at all costs, for political reasons.

Not everyone has high hopes from the proposed economic corridor. Some experts on political and economic affairs are criticizing on route change of CPEC. They believe that the proposed corridor will pass through Gilgit-Baltistan which is a disputed territory according to constitution of Pakistan and UN resolutions relating to Kashmir. They believe that China would never use a corridor, in the long-term, which passes through a disputed territory. They expect that China is eyeing the Chabahar port in Iran, situated at a distance of 100 KM from Gwadar, for transit trade.

Moreover success of CPEC depends on the support of people of Gwadar for this project. That can only be achieved by developing Gwadar in the real sense. The most important stakeholders in this debate are the people of Gwadar. Gwadar is the centre of attention for this entire corridor but ground realities in Gwadar paint a different picture altogether. There is an acute shortage of clean drinking water, lack of basic health care facilities and almost zero employment opportunities in Gwadar city. In such a situation, people of Gwadar would resent any project that would not benefit them. Development of Gwadar is a pre-requisite for successful accomplishment of the Economic Corridor Project and government has, thus far, shown no inclination towards it.

A decision has to be made on the route quickly because construction work on certain parts of the corridor has already commenced. In the best interests of Pakistan, the third route should be chosen. This decision will result in economic development of Balochistan and KP, which will create economic parity among federating units. This, in turn, will strengthen the federation of Pakistan.

Success of CPEC depends on the support of people of Gwadar for this project. That can only be achieved by developing Gwadar in the real sense. All the politicians and members of civil society who are protesting for change in route of CPEC should, therefore, also protest for much-needed development work in Gwadar.